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Confessions of a TV Maven at JackMyers.com Sunday night for live commentary from Jacki Garfinkel, Ed Martin and Jack Myers and to post your own feedback throughout the Emmy telecast.
From the nominations to the presentations of the awards themselves, the 2005 and 2006 Emmy Awards were filled with so many unexpected shocks and surprises -- a number of them logic-defying -- that serious prediction-making now seems almost pointless. Just consider this year's most egregious oversights -- zero nominations in the major drama categories for NBC's Friday Night Lights and HBO's The Wire, arguably the two most profound series on television -- and you'll understand the near folly of it all. (At least Lights scored nods for Outstanding Directing and Outstanding Casting.)
And yet, who can resist the annual pre-Emmy guessing game that sets the stage for the satisfaction and exasperation to come? What follows are my predictions and preferences in the major Drama Series and Comedy Series categories and shout-outs to those who were denied deserving nominations.
Outstanding Drama Series
The nominees are:
Boston Legal
Grey's Anatomy
Heroes
House
The Sopranos
Prediction: The Sopranos (If the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences is smart it will give this historic series the grand send off it deserves.)
Preference: The Sopranos
Friday Night Lights, The Wire and The Shield belong in the slots occupied by Boston Legal, Heroes and House -- and I wouldn't have complained if the luminous Lights beat Sopranos.
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
The nominees are:
James Gandolfini, The Sopranos
Hugh Laurie, House
Denis Leary, Rescue Me
James Spader, Boston Legal
Kiefer Sutherland, 24
Prediction: Hugh Laurie (He's long overdue, and it wasn't Gandolfini's best year.)
Preference: Denis Leary (His comic energy and dramatic intensity are unparalleled, and it wasn't Laurie's best year.)
Kyle Chandler of Friday Night Lights and Michael Chiklis of The Shield should be in the slots occupied by James Spader and Kiefer Sutherland. And Michael C. Hall of Dexter should be the sixth nominee. Chandler deserves the top honor for working quiet wonders with his everyman role.
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
The nominees are:
Patricia Arquette, Medium
Minnie Driver, The Riches
Edie Falco, The Sopranos
Sally Field, Brothers & Sisters
Mariska Hargitay, Law & Order: Special Victims Unit
Kyra Sedgwick, The Closer
Prediction: Sally Field (Hollywood really likes her and loves to give her awards, and she always deserves them.)
Preference: Kyra Sedgwick or Sally Field
I would have preferred to see Annabeth Gish of Brotherhood recognized in place of previous winners Patricia Arquette and Mariska Hargitay, but even with Gish on deck I would still go with Sedgwick or Field. Don't rule out the brave and bold Minnie Driver as a surprise winner here.
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
The nominees are:
William Shatner, Boston Legal
T.R. Knight, Grey's Anatomy
Masi Oka, Heroes
Michael Emerson, Lost
Terry O'Quinn, Lost
Michael Imperioli, The Sopranos
Prediction: Masi Oka (The industry probably wants to honor Heroes in some way, and this is the best way to go.)
Preference: From this group, Michael Emerson (His was the creepiest drama series performance in recent memory.)
This may be the most exasperating category of the year. Frankly, there are a number of very fine actors in the ensembles of Friday Night Lights and The Wire who deserved to be recognized here more than any of the nominees listed above. And from where I sit, the best performance by a supporting actor in a drama series this year came from Walton Goggins on The Shield. He deserves the award, but he wasn't even invited to the damn party!
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
The nominees are:
Rachel Griffiths, Brothers & Sisters
Katherine Heigl, Grey's Anatomy
Chandra Wilson, Grey's Anatomy
Sandra Oh, Grey's Anatomy
Aida Turturro, The Sopranos
Lorraine Bracco, The Sopranos
Prediction: Chandra Wilson or Sandra Oh
Preference: From this group, Lorraine Bracco (I confess: I still think Bracco should have been honored for her galvanizing performance in the episode about the rape of Dr. Melfi back in season three of The Sopranos, so that might be coloring my decision making now, since this is her last chance for EMMY recognition in this unforgettable nine-year role. That said, I would not complain if Katherine Heigl takes home the prize. She was the bleeding heart and sizzling soul of Grey's Anatomy during its wildly uneven third season.)
Why the hell are Connie Britton and Adrianne Palicki of Friday Night Lights and Elizabeth Mitchell of Lost missing from this list? They were the best supporting actresses on dramatic television this season!
Outstanding Comedy Series
The nominees are:
Entourage
The Office
30 Rock
Two and a Half Men
Ugly Betty
Prediction: The Office or 30 Rock (They're both industry favorites, even more than Entourage.)
Preference: Ugly Betty (The comedy with the most Emmy nominations this year, and rightly so.)
As much as I love Weeds and Psych, I wouldn't add them to this list at the expense of any of the five shows nominated.
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
The nominees are:
Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
Steve Carell, The Office
Ricky Gervais, Extras
Tony Shalhoub, Monk
Charlie Sheen, Two and a Half Men
Prediction: Alec Baldwin (But remember, Steve Carell is not undeserving, three-time winner Tony Shalhoub could strike again and Ricky Gervais would be a sweet surprise.)
Preference: Alec Baldwin
I would have designated Alec Baldwin a supporting actor on 30 Rock, which would have left room in this category for the curiously and consistently overlooked Jason Lee of My Name is Earl. Under those circumstances, my choice would have been Lee.
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
The nominees are:
America Ferrera, Ugly Betty
Tina Fey, 30 Rock
Felicity Huffman, Desperate Housewives
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, The New Adventures of Old Christine
Mary-Louise Parker, Weeds
Prediction: America Ferrera (But watch out for Tina Fey!)
Preference: The sweet and wonderful Ms. Ferrera
Here's my last chance after seven long seasons to complain about the exclusion of Gilmore Girls star Lauren Graham from this category. I'm not sure that her performance as motor-mouthed Lorelai Gilmore deserved an actual award, but Graham deserved to at least be included in this category every year of her show's run. Meantime, if Tina Fey takes home an Emmy on Sunday it should be as writer or producer of 30 Rock and not as the top female comedy performer of the year. And while I'm totally in America Ferrera's corner, it should be noted that Felicity Huffman last season delivered the strongest performance of any actress in this category in the supermarket hostage crisis episode of Desperate Housewives. Even though that was a dramatic rather than a comedic showcase for her, Huffman should not be ruled out here.
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
The nominees are:
Kevin Dillon, Entourage
Jeremy Piven, Entourage
Neil Patrick Harris, How I Met Your Mother
Rainn Wilson, The Office
Jon Cryer, Two and a Half Men
Prediction: Jeremy Piven (Because everyone who votes has an agent)
Preference: Kevin Dillon (Because he plays a perfect idiot)
There is a groundswell of support for Neil Patrick Harris, and the consistently entertaining Jon Cryer is woefully overdue, but Jeremy Piven and Kevin Dillon remain the boys to beat.
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
The nominees are:
Jaime Pressly, My Name is Earl
Jenna Fischer, The Office
Holland Taylor, Two and a Half Men
Conchata Ferrell, Two and a Half Men
Vanessa Williams, Ugly Betty
Elizabeth Perkins, Weeds
Prediction: Vanessa Williams (Because she had the showiest role)
Preference: Elizabeth Perkins or the priceless Holland Taylor
It's a shame that Kelly Bishop could not have been recognized for her work in the seventh and final season of Gilmore Girls -- or in any of its previous seasons, for that matter. Her work as the haughty and neurotic matriarch of the Gilmore family was one of the great comic pleasures of this millennium to date. That voting members of the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences aggressively ignored Bishop and her sparkling co-star Lauren Graham throughout the run of their series demands an explanation. Sadly, it is one we will never get.
at JackMyers.com Sunday night for live commentary from Jacki Garfinkel, Ed Martin and Jack Myers and to post your own feedback throughout the Emmy telecast.
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